Some Links

In lieu of a substantive post, here are some links:

International Development

My old friend and quaffing partner "wwhyte" discusses international capital flows, based on a chunky PDFed article by Brad DeLong to which he links. With the US economy in trouble, there could be net capital flows to Third World countries. This may or may not be a good thing. Actual capital investment (you know, money coming in to build productive resources etc.) can often be the kind of thing less developed economies need. Hot money (fast moving liquid cash) and portfolio investment (purchasing of shares and bonds) can however be problematic in such environments, as they create instability in a system unable to manage it.

d'Hondt or D'Hondt

Matthew Søberg Shugart ponders The Great Debate – how do you spell the name of the guy who invented the d'hondt system for seat allocation in proportional electoral systems. Like most people in Ireland, I first became aware of d'hondt in the context of government formation in Northern Ireland. During the years of peace process & political paralysis, there kept being a lot of talk of "triggering d'hondt", meaning that the parties would get an allocation of the places in government based on their representation in the Assembly. They then picked the government positions one by one; I'm not sure if d'hondt covers this.

A Sensible Path on Iran

Zbigniew Brzezinski and William Odom talk about Iran, arguing that the more pressure the country is put on, the more likely it is to develop nuclear weapons. This is hardly an orginal argument, but it is well-stated here. Brzezinski & Odon also discuss countries that gave up their nuclear weapons programmes, typically without external pressure. I suppose part of what makes this all interesting is its broadly Realist bent, and its sense of the limitations of US power.

Fringe Thoughts

The brainy sociology blog of people I know. Sociology is an interesting discipline… looking at it from the outside, it all seems very leftist. That's not a bad thing in and of itself, but it might marginalise sociology somewhat. I wonder are there any right-wing sociologists (by which | mean not Nazis but people who aren't leftists - you know, people do not believe in the desirability or possibility of radical social change).

I am basically revealing my ignorance of sociology here, as I have not really engaged with it since I left it behind for the questionable benefits of political science and economics. I don't even know what sociologists argue about with each other. Maybe they have transcended disagreement.

Shooting the Messenger

Shaul Mofaz, Deputy Prime Minister of Israel, has called for the sacking of International Atomic Energy Agency head, Mohammed ElBaradei . Mr ElBaradei has reported that there is no immediate prospect of Iran developing a nuclear weapon or evidence that it is trying to do so. The Israeli leadership would like Mr ElBaradei to report that Iran is close to building nuclear weapons, as this could trigger US military action against the Islamic Republic.

Mr ElBaradei is no stranger to controversy. Prior to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, he was criticised for reporting that the Iraqi nuclear weapons programme was non-existent. No evidence for Saddam Hussein possessing a nuclear weapons programme has yet been found by Iraq's occupiers.

Unlike Iran, Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel is the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East.

Secrets

Mordechai Vanunu used to work in the Dimona nuclear plant in Israel. Then he quit his job and travelled to Europe, where he sold a story to the Sunday Times about how Dimona was a nuclear bomb factory. The Israeli secret services kidnapped him from Italy and transported him back to Israel, where he was thrown in jail. He was eventually to serve some eighteen years, much of it in solitary. I am not aware of the Italian authorities taking much interest in tracking down his kidnappers.

Vanunu was released in 2004, but under draconian conditions. He was not allowed to talk to foreigners, not allowed to approach foreign embassies, and not allowed to leave the state of Israel. He did not talk to me when I was staying in the guest house where he lived in 2005, but he apparently has been having some chats with some non-Israelis, and has now been thrown back in jail for another six months.

Vanunu apparently knows astonishing secrets on whose suppression the state of Israel depends for its security. It is fascinating to speculate as to what these might be, given that his initial disclosures (backed up by his kidnapping) revealed Israel to be nuclear power.

Links:

Vanunu sentenced to new jail term

Israel jails Vanunu over foreign contacts

Mordechai Vanunu's own website (he probably does not update it himself, as accessing the Internet is another thing he is not allowed to do)