21 August, 2012
Farewell Meles Zenawi
Meles Zenawi, prime minister of Ethiopia since 1995 has died. Meles is the first leader of Ethiopia to die in office (rather than being overthrown by force or murdered) since the death of Empress Zewditu in 1930 (and it is often felt that Zewditu was herself murdered to facilitate the accession of Tefari Makonnen, who took the name Haile Selassie as emperor). If Empress Zewditu was indeed murdered then the last Ethiopian ruler before Meles to die in office was Emperor Menelik in 1913, almost 100 years ago. I think one would have go back a long way to find a leader of Ethiopia who left office voluntarily or was removed by constitutional means, though the same is probably true of most monarchies (as Ethiopia was before 1974).
Meles came to power after a long civil war that had pitted the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam against a variety of enemies. Meles led the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front, a group based in the northern province of Tigray, which had particularly suffered at the hands of Mengistu. The TPLF were allied to the Eritrean People's Liberation Front, a separatist movement in the coastal province of Eritrea. The EPLF had been fighting a longer war against both Mengistu's clique and before him Emperor Haile Selassie.
In power Meles and his were initially a breath of fresh air after the erratic Stalinism of the Mengistu regime. Eritrea was allowed to secede from Ethiopia and the TPLF was reconstituted as the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, to broaden its base beyond the Tigray province. As a counter to the centralising tendencies of Mengistu, a federal constitution was adopted, with the various provinces allowed a considerable degree of autonomy. And in contrast to most African countries, Ethiopia adopted a parliamentary rather than presidential system of government.
However, things did not turn out as well as initially promised. Elections held under Meles proved to be a bit of a joke, with non-EPRDF prevented from campaigning properly and votes not being counted in a fair and transparent manner. When opposition activists protested against this in 2005 they were massacred and leading opposition politicians thrown in jail until they admitted that the violence had all been their fault. The press in Ethiopia remained subject to crippling censorship and the broadcast media resembles something from pre-1989 Eastern Europe in its fawning devotion to Meles and his pals. The new federalism of Ethiopia seemed just to be a mask for EPRDF dominance, with many in Ethiopia feeling that now the country was being run for the benefit of Meles' base in Tigray. The human rights situation remains abysmal, with journalists being arrested recently for reporting that Meles was a bit unwell.
Meles Zenawi also led his country into war with his erstwhile allies in Eritrea. This border conflict, which seems to have been initiated by the President Isias Afewerki, the neo-Stalinist leader of Eritrea, was eventually won by Ethiopia. However, the conflict claimed the lives of several hundred thousand people in fighting that recalled the First World War. Since then relations with Eritrea have remained poisonous, with each country's paranoid leadership accusing the other of plotting to overthrow it and accusing their domestic opposition of being in the pay of the national enemy. War is peace.
More successfully (for him), Meles made his country a firm ally of the United States of America. Post 11-9, he declared Ethiopia a junior partner in the war on terror, which meant that the USA supplied him with military and diplomatic support against Eritrea and allowed him to project Ethiopian power into neighbouring Somalia, by accepting his claims that this was some kind of battle against Islamist terrorists. The support of the USA and its friends also allowed Meles to shrug off any criticism from do-gooders about his human rights record and Ethiopia's crypto-dictatorial system of government.
And now he has gone. What will be interesting will be to see whether his passing allows some kind of opening up of Ethiopian politics and a transition to open electoral politics. The fear of many, however, will be that his authoritarian political system will now disintegrate in a messy and violent manner, plunging Ethiopia back into chaos and civil war.
Image source
16 June, 2012
Ethiopian Government to Stop Internet
The BBC reports that the Ethiopian government is cracking down on the Internet. To me this is a bit surprising. When I was in the country a couple of years ago, internet access there was so erratic and hard to come by that I am amazed the authorities thought it was worth trying to control. Back then they were more inclined to control mobile phone networks and had blocked SMS so that people could not organise demonstrations by text message, as had happened after the current government was suspected of stealing the 2005 election.
That was in 2008. With the passage of time, the Internet must have developed in Ethiopia to the extent where it became worth trying to control, so the government have stepped in. Use of Skype and Internet telephony services have been criminalised, with some reports saying that use of such things now carries a maximum sentence of 15 years in jail.
Security considerations may not be the only concern here. One other fear is that people might use Skype in Internet cafés to make voice calls, eating into the revenue of the state telecommunications provider. But Ethiopia is a country whose authoritarian government wants total control of communications. Skype and things similar to it are hard to monitor, so it represented a danger to the regime's censors and had to go.
More
That was in 2008. With the passage of time, the Internet must have developed in Ethiopia to the extent where it became worth trying to control, so the government have stepped in. Use of Skype and Internet telephony services have been criminalised, with some reports saying that use of such things now carries a maximum sentence of 15 years in jail.
Security considerations may not be the only concern here. One other fear is that people might use Skype in Internet cafés to make voice calls, eating into the revenue of the state telecommunications provider. But Ethiopia is a country whose authoritarian government wants total control of communications. Skype and things similar to it are hard to monitor, so it represented a danger to the regime's censors and had to go.
More
17 May, 2012
Migrating bird ruffles Turkish feathers
When villagers in southwestern Turkey found a dead bird with a metal ring round its leg stamped "Israel", they reached the obvious conclusion – that the bird had been sent from Israel to spy on Turkey. Local police discovered that the bird had unusually large nostrils, in which they suspected a microchip may have been hidden. A special counter-terrorism unit of the police also became involved, perhaps suspecting that the bird may have been trying to make contact with Kurdish separatists or other extremists operating within Turkey.
Officials from the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture eventually managed to convince locals and the police that the bird – a common European bee-eater – was not a threat to national security and had merely been tagged in the Zionist Entity as part of a routine tracking of the movements of migratory birds. But why were the Ministry officials so keen to dampen down concerns as to the bird's true purpose? Whose orders were they following?
More
From Hunting Monsters
Officials from the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture eventually managed to convince locals and the police that the bird – a common European bee-eater – was not a threat to national security and had merely been tagged in the Zionist Entity as part of a routine tracking of the movements of migratory birds. But why were the Ministry officials so keen to dampen down concerns as to the bird's true purpose? Whose orders were they following?
More
From Hunting Monsters
15 May, 2012
"Our hands are tied"
I saw a Socialist Party MEP on the news talking about how if the referendum on the European Stability Treaty thing was passed then Ireland would be stuck with austerity budgets forever – no future government would ever be able to break out of this austerity straitjacket. I am not entirely convinced by this. For one thing, I suspect that if the Socialist Party are ever leading a government they will not say: "We would really love to bring austerity to an end, but alas, our hands are tied by this treaty".
There might be a deliberate missing of the point with what is being voted on in the referendum going on. If passed, it allows the state to ratify the European Stability Treaty thing. The actual terms of the Treaty thing are then incorporated into Irish law by ordinary legislation. I am no lawyer, but my understanding is that at some future stage these provisions could then be taken out of Irish law by future legislation – ordinary legislation, not a consitutional amendment, as the constitutional amendment in the referendum merely allows the state to ratify the Treaty thing, but does not require it to do so or require it to stick to the terms of the Treaty thing forever.
What do you think?
Greece – what next?
Join me as I gaze into my crystal ball and attempt to predict what will happen over the next while in Greece. Bookmark this page and come back to laugh at me when my predictions prove to be completely nonsensical.
First up, where is Greece now? Well it is not in great shape. Its public finances are in a disastrous state and its economy is contracting at an alarming rate. It has been unable to borrow on the open markets at affordable rates and instead has been borrowing from a combination of the European Central Bank and the IMF. These institutions have laid down stringent conditions to their loans, which have contributed to Greece's economic decline. But Greece has been a bit slack at meeting its lenders' targets, leading to a certain lack of confidence on their part.
The May 6th election result was inconclusive, largely thanks to a quirk of the Greek electoral system. 250 MPs are elected by proportional representation, but an extra block of 50 seats are given to the party with the largest share of the votes. That was New Democracy, Greece's long-standing centre-right party. Together with PASOK (the old centre-left party) and a small leftwing party a parliamentary majority in favour of continuing with the EU/IMF bailout programme could have been scraped together, but anti-bailout parties clearly won a majority of votes cast. A pro-bailout government would have lacked popular legitimacy and so could not be formed, while an anti-bailout government would have lacked a parliamentary majority. So Greece is calling new elections.
At the time of writing, my understanding is that these elections will happen on either the 10th or the 17th of June. This time I expect that they will produce an anti-bailout majority. Last time, nearly a fifth of Greeks voted for small anti-bailout parties that failed to pass the 3% threshold required to get into parliament. This time enough of them will switch to more popular anti-bailout parties. In particular, I reckon that Syriza, a far-left coalition in some ways akin to the United Left Alliance in Ireland, will finish ahead of New Democracy and pick up the 50-seat bonus. Together with the Communists and perhaps another anti-bailout party or two (but not the Golden Dawn, who are evil) they will form an anti-bailout government.
Things might get awkward if the election results fall in such a way that the far right nutters in the Golden Dawn are needed for an anti-bailout majority in parliament, but I am assuming that this will not happen.
Now, the anti-bailout lot in Greece are not actually against being lent money at advantageous rates by the EU/IMF, they just do not want to have to conform to the conditions attached to the loan. And they may also not want to pay the loan back either. So when they get into government they will basically say: "Keep sending us the money, however we are not going to stick to the austerity conditions agreed with previous governments". Their possibly naïve assumption is that Greece can tough it out with its creditors, because at the end of the day Greek bankruptcy would hurt the other European countries so badly that they will keep the money tap on to prevent thishappening.
The next tranche of bailout money is due to Greece in the middle of June, at the same time as the elections. If that money is not paid over, Greece will be bankrupt; apparently there is a possibility of the Greek state going bust even before then. My prediction is that one way or another, Greece will find itself with an anti-bailout government and no bailout money – the people who are stumping up the money for Greece (primarily Chancellor Merkel of Germany) would rather take the hit on the country leaving the Euro than give more money to a government that is repudiating the bailout conditions.
Things will then get very messy very quickly. With no one lending to it, the Greek government will only be able to spend money it can raise itself in Greece. This is not nearly enough to cover its expenditure (if it was, the Greek state would not need a bailout). It goes without saying that it will then be in the situation they call messy default – abruptly telling its creditors that they are not going to be getting any more repayments any time soon, if ever. But the problem for Greece is that it is running a deficit on current spending – the money it pays to state employees, social welfare recipients, and the other recipients of state spending is way more than what it is raising in taxes. With no bailout money it will have to start defaulting on these payments as well.
Now, in the normal run of things, if you are a country's minister for finance and you cannot borrow money and are spending more money than you are taking in there is only one thing you can do – print more money. Greece is in the Eurozone and cannot print more Euros. I think the only way around this conundrum is an abrupt introduction by Greece of a new currency, a neo-Drachma or some such. The Greek government will be able to print this up to their hearts content and pay people as much of it as they like. Perhaps initially the neo-Drachma will be a parallel currency with Greece still notionally in the Euro zone, but I reckon that the introduction of this banana money will drive the Euro out of circulation and lead to an effective Greek exit from the Eurozone.
Why will the Euro drop out of circulation in Greece? Well, the Greek government have introduced the neo-Drachma to get around the imbalance between its revenue and expenditure. Instead of cutting back on expenditure (easier said than done in a country as depressed as Greece), it will print money to make up the difference. But this gross expansion of the money supply, backed by nothing except the Greek government's not very convincing claims to be setting the country on a new economic tack, mean that the neo-Drachma will rapidly start collapsing in value relative to the Euro. Anyone holding Euro funds will hoard them or, even better, get them out of Greece as their relative value to the neo-Drachma soars.
So Greece enters into a period of hyperinflation. Public sector workers start striking in protest at being paid in increasingly worthless monopoly money and social welfare recipients fall ever further into poverty. The public sector generally starts to fall apart. Anyone with access to money outside Greece may well find that they are doing very well now, as their hard currency goes a long way, but for a lot of Greeks this period is nightmarish. Maybe further along, the devaluation of the neo-Drachma is good for Greek exporters, as their products are so much cheaper on the international market, but what exports does Greece potentially have? Maybe it will see a flood of tourists coming to spend their money in a country that is now amazingly cheap, but do people holiday in a country that is disintegrating?
Well, that's the best I can do. What do you think will happen?
From Hunting Monsters
First up, where is Greece now? Well it is not in great shape. Its public finances are in a disastrous state and its economy is contracting at an alarming rate. It has been unable to borrow on the open markets at affordable rates and instead has been borrowing from a combination of the European Central Bank and the IMF. These institutions have laid down stringent conditions to their loans, which have contributed to Greece's economic decline. But Greece has been a bit slack at meeting its lenders' targets, leading to a certain lack of confidence on their part.
The May 6th election result was inconclusive, largely thanks to a quirk of the Greek electoral system. 250 MPs are elected by proportional representation, but an extra block of 50 seats are given to the party with the largest share of the votes. That was New Democracy, Greece's long-standing centre-right party. Together with PASOK (the old centre-left party) and a small leftwing party a parliamentary majority in favour of continuing with the EU/IMF bailout programme could have been scraped together, but anti-bailout parties clearly won a majority of votes cast. A pro-bailout government would have lacked popular legitimacy and so could not be formed, while an anti-bailout government would have lacked a parliamentary majority. So Greece is calling new elections.
At the time of writing, my understanding is that these elections will happen on either the 10th or the 17th of June. This time I expect that they will produce an anti-bailout majority. Last time, nearly a fifth of Greeks voted for small anti-bailout parties that failed to pass the 3% threshold required to get into parliament. This time enough of them will switch to more popular anti-bailout parties. In particular, I reckon that Syriza, a far-left coalition in some ways akin to the United Left Alliance in Ireland, will finish ahead of New Democracy and pick up the 50-seat bonus. Together with the Communists and perhaps another anti-bailout party or two (but not the Golden Dawn, who are evil) they will form an anti-bailout government.
Things might get awkward if the election results fall in such a way that the far right nutters in the Golden Dawn are needed for an anti-bailout majority in parliament, but I am assuming that this will not happen.
Now, the anti-bailout lot in Greece are not actually against being lent money at advantageous rates by the EU/IMF, they just do not want to have to conform to the conditions attached to the loan. And they may also not want to pay the loan back either. So when they get into government they will basically say: "Keep sending us the money, however we are not going to stick to the austerity conditions agreed with previous governments". Their possibly naïve assumption is that Greece can tough it out with its creditors, because at the end of the day Greek bankruptcy would hurt the other European countries so badly that they will keep the money tap on to prevent thishappening.
The next tranche of bailout money is due to Greece in the middle of June, at the same time as the elections. If that money is not paid over, Greece will be bankrupt; apparently there is a possibility of the Greek state going bust even before then. My prediction is that one way or another, Greece will find itself with an anti-bailout government and no bailout money – the people who are stumping up the money for Greece (primarily Chancellor Merkel of Germany) would rather take the hit on the country leaving the Euro than give more money to a government that is repudiating the bailout conditions.
Things will then get very messy very quickly. With no one lending to it, the Greek government will only be able to spend money it can raise itself in Greece. This is not nearly enough to cover its expenditure (if it was, the Greek state would not need a bailout). It goes without saying that it will then be in the situation they call messy default – abruptly telling its creditors that they are not going to be getting any more repayments any time soon, if ever. But the problem for Greece is that it is running a deficit on current spending – the money it pays to state employees, social welfare recipients, and the other recipients of state spending is way more than what it is raising in taxes. With no bailout money it will have to start defaulting on these payments as well.
Now, in the normal run of things, if you are a country's minister for finance and you cannot borrow money and are spending more money than you are taking in there is only one thing you can do – print more money. Greece is in the Eurozone and cannot print more Euros. I think the only way around this conundrum is an abrupt introduction by Greece of a new currency, a neo-Drachma or some such. The Greek government will be able to print this up to their hearts content and pay people as much of it as they like. Perhaps initially the neo-Drachma will be a parallel currency with Greece still notionally in the Euro zone, but I reckon that the introduction of this banana money will drive the Euro out of circulation and lead to an effective Greek exit from the Eurozone.
Why will the Euro drop out of circulation in Greece? Well, the Greek government have introduced the neo-Drachma to get around the imbalance between its revenue and expenditure. Instead of cutting back on expenditure (easier said than done in a country as depressed as Greece), it will print money to make up the difference. But this gross expansion of the money supply, backed by nothing except the Greek government's not very convincing claims to be setting the country on a new economic tack, mean that the neo-Drachma will rapidly start collapsing in value relative to the Euro. Anyone holding Euro funds will hoard them or, even better, get them out of Greece as their relative value to the neo-Drachma soars.
So Greece enters into a period of hyperinflation. Public sector workers start striking in protest at being paid in increasingly worthless monopoly money and social welfare recipients fall ever further into poverty. The public sector generally starts to fall apart. Anyone with access to money outside Greece may well find that they are doing very well now, as their hard currency goes a long way, but for a lot of Greeks this period is nightmarish. Maybe further along, the devaluation of the neo-Drachma is good for Greek exporters, as their products are so much cheaper on the international market, but what exports does Greece potentially have? Maybe it will see a flood of tourists coming to spend their money in a country that is now amazingly cheap, but do people holiday in a country that is disintegrating?
Well, that's the best I can do. What do you think will happen?
From Hunting Monsters
13 May, 2012
What if the USA was run by Realists…
I have previously mentioned Realism (see here and here), the international relations framing theory that purports to describe the- world-as-it-really-is. Of course, all international relations theorists purport to say how things really are, but by describing themselves as "Realists", the followers of this school are claiming to be far closer to the truth than their rivals. The Realists say that they describe the world as it is, not as how they would like it to be. They agree that a world without war and conflict would be a nice one, but they argue that we will always face threats to our security and that we should act accordingly.
Generally speaking, Realists always come across as the bad guys when you study international relations theory. Partly this is because their "it was ever thus" outlook comes across as a bit smug and self-satisfied, and partly it is because they can come across as a cynical bunch who are only too happy to justify any nefarious activity as necessary to advance state security; Realists do sometimes claim Machiavelli as one of their own, after all. In practice, though, the Realists can often be less like the crazed warmongers that their theoretical position makes them appear. They have a sense of the limitations of state power that makes them wary of any attempt to do more than can realistically be accomplished.
And so I bring you to a recent article on the Foreign Policy website by the prominent Realist academic Stephen M. Walt. He argues that since the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy has largely been under the control of liberal internationalists and neoconservatives. The former have pushed America into the business of promoting democracy and human rights everywhere in the world, while the latter have tried to seize the moment by establishing a permanent US hegemony over the world. Their interests have merged because the neoconservatives reckon that democracy and human rights would probably favour the interests of the USA, while advancing them gives an opportunity to interfere everywhere; the liberal internationalists see US hegemony as allowing for the advancing of their goals.
Walt is hostile the programme these people have adopted, not because he hates human rights or wants the USA to be weak, but because he reckons that the promotion of human rights and democracy is a waste of time and effort, while the neocons' attempt to secure global hegemony seriously overestimates the capabilities of the USA and is actually undermining the security of the USA by encouraging other powers to unite against it. In the article, Walt puts forward ten ways in which US foreign policy would have been radically different over the last twenty years if it had been run by Realists. In doing so he is not just looking back with the benefit of hindsight and advocating different policies to ones which failed, but rather he is restating policies that he and his fellow Realists had actually advocated.
What is striking about Walt's counterfactual is how much it leads to the USA doing less than it has been doing since the end of the Cold War. Walt's Realist USA would not have invaded Iraq, would not have launched a global "War on Terror", would not have encouraged NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, and would not have provided Israel with the blank cheque support it has enjoyed. The Realist USA would also have stayed out of the former Yugoslavia (good news for alternative Earth Slobodan Milosevic and Ratko Mladic) and Libya. The only thing on Walt's list that amounts to some new thing a Realist USA would have done is increase its focus on China. Realists have a bit of a thing about China. Walt is not saying that the USA should have invaded China or pursued an aggressive policy towards it, but he feels that a Realist approach would focus on trying to build Asian alliances that would stop China becoming too powerful or dangerous to US interests.
In some respects, then Walt's Realist USA would have been a lot more isolationist than the one of Clinton, Bush and Obama with which we are familiar, though it would still be taking some interest in affairs beyond its borders and trying to broker alliances where its interests appeared to need them. But it would definitely be far less interventionist than the actual USA. Many people see the USA's interventionism as the source of all the world's problems, so maybe they would prefer to live in the world of Realist USA. Or maybe not.
Still, I am not convinced that the Realists are fundamentally different from the neoconservatives. US Realists and neoconservatives are united in thinking that the USA should maximise its security by any means necessary – they just calculate differently the ability of the USA to reorder the world to its advantage. At root they are basically the same – for all Walt's apparent non-interventionism, if something were to happen tomorrow morning that greatly increased the power of the USA he probably would be quite happy for his government to continue with its policies of global intervention.
From Hunting Monsters
Generally speaking, Realists always come across as the bad guys when you study international relations theory. Partly this is because their "it was ever thus" outlook comes across as a bit smug and self-satisfied, and partly it is because they can come across as a cynical bunch who are only too happy to justify any nefarious activity as necessary to advance state security; Realists do sometimes claim Machiavelli as one of their own, after all. In practice, though, the Realists can often be less like the crazed warmongers that their theoretical position makes them appear. They have a sense of the limitations of state power that makes them wary of any attempt to do more than can realistically be accomplished.
And so I bring you to a recent article on the Foreign Policy website by the prominent Realist academic Stephen M. Walt. He argues that since the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy has largely been under the control of liberal internationalists and neoconservatives. The former have pushed America into the business of promoting democracy and human rights everywhere in the world, while the latter have tried to seize the moment by establishing a permanent US hegemony over the world. Their interests have merged because the neoconservatives reckon that democracy and human rights would probably favour the interests of the USA, while advancing them gives an opportunity to interfere everywhere; the liberal internationalists see US hegemony as allowing for the advancing of their goals.
Walt is hostile the programme these people have adopted, not because he hates human rights or wants the USA to be weak, but because he reckons that the promotion of human rights and democracy is a waste of time and effort, while the neocons' attempt to secure global hegemony seriously overestimates the capabilities of the USA and is actually undermining the security of the USA by encouraging other powers to unite against it. In the article, Walt puts forward ten ways in which US foreign policy would have been radically different over the last twenty years if it had been run by Realists. In doing so he is not just looking back with the benefit of hindsight and advocating different policies to ones which failed, but rather he is restating policies that he and his fellow Realists had actually advocated.
What is striking about Walt's counterfactual is how much it leads to the USA doing less than it has been doing since the end of the Cold War. Walt's Realist USA would not have invaded Iraq, would not have launched a global "War on Terror", would not have encouraged NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, and would not have provided Israel with the blank cheque support it has enjoyed. The Realist USA would also have stayed out of the former Yugoslavia (good news for alternative Earth Slobodan Milosevic and Ratko Mladic) and Libya. The only thing on Walt's list that amounts to some new thing a Realist USA would have done is increase its focus on China. Realists have a bit of a thing about China. Walt is not saying that the USA should have invaded China or pursued an aggressive policy towards it, but he feels that a Realist approach would focus on trying to build Asian alliances that would stop China becoming too powerful or dangerous to US interests.
In some respects, then Walt's Realist USA would have been a lot more isolationist than the one of Clinton, Bush and Obama with which we are familiar, though it would still be taking some interest in affairs beyond its borders and trying to broker alliances where its interests appeared to need them. But it would definitely be far less interventionist than the actual USA. Many people see the USA's interventionism as the source of all the world's problems, so maybe they would prefer to live in the world of Realist USA. Or maybe not.
Still, I am not convinced that the Realists are fundamentally different from the neoconservatives. US Realists and neoconservatives are united in thinking that the USA should maximise its security by any means necessary – they just calculate differently the ability of the USA to reorder the world to its advantage. At root they are basically the same – for all Walt's apparent non-interventionism, if something were to happen tomorrow morning that greatly increased the power of the USA he probably would be quite happy for his government to continue with its policies of global intervention.
From Hunting Monsters
10 May, 2012
Eskinder Nega and press freedom in Ethiopia
The east African nation of Eritrea is famous for being the country with world's least-free press. But now its neighbour and enemy Ethiopia is catching up from behind. Roy Greenslade reports in the Guardian that the journalist and blogger Eskinder Nega is in danger of being sentenced to death tomorrow (on Friday the 11th May 2012). Nega has been under arrest since last September, when he wrote an article critical of the arrest of other Ethiopian journalists under the country's sweeping legislation, which head in the direction of making it a crime to say anything critical of the country's government or supportive of anyone or anything the government dislikes. As well as being accused of supporting terrorism (by writing his critical article), Mr Nega has been accused of membership of a banned political party (opposition parties are often banned in Ethiopia) and of smuggling explosives in from Eritrea.
Mr Nega is no stranger to Ethiopia's prison system. Earlier last year he spent some time inside after writing an article on the Arab Spring that was viewed as an attempt to incite a revolt against the faux democratic regime of Meles Zenawi. He was also banged up in 2005 for writing about that year's disputed elections and newspapers that he and his wife, Serkalem Fasil, write for were closed by the government. There are reports that he has been subjected to torture while in detention.
Mr Nega's detention and possible death sentence is symptomatic of the slight into naked authoritarianism Ethiopia has seen under the regime of Meles Zenawi. Meles and his EPRDF colleagues came to power by overthrowing the brutal dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam, ushering in a new era of hope. Since then, however, his party has settled into a cynically authoritarian rule white-washed by increasingly farcical "elections" every couple of years. The fear must be that this new despotism will usher in the kind of violent reaction that erupted against Mengistu in the 1970s and 1980s, with Meles the midwife of another round of civil war.
More (and image source) (IFEX: The global network for free expression)
Even More (PEN)
From Hunting Monsters
Mr Nega is no stranger to Ethiopia's prison system. Earlier last year he spent some time inside after writing an article on the Arab Spring that was viewed as an attempt to incite a revolt against the faux democratic regime of Meles Zenawi. He was also banged up in 2005 for writing about that year's disputed elections and newspapers that he and his wife, Serkalem Fasil, write for were closed by the government. There are reports that he has been subjected to torture while in detention.
Mr Nega's detention and possible death sentence is symptomatic of the slight into naked authoritarianism Ethiopia has seen under the regime of Meles Zenawi. Meles and his EPRDF colleagues came to power by overthrowing the brutal dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam, ushering in a new era of hope. Since then, however, his party has settled into a cynically authoritarian rule white-washed by increasingly farcical "elections" every couple of years. The fear must be that this new despotism will usher in the kind of violent reaction that erupted against Mengistu in the 1970s and 1980s, with Meles the midwife of another round of civil war.
More (and image source) (IFEX: The global network for free expression)
Even More (PEN)
From Hunting Monsters
07 May, 2012
GREECE IN CRISIS
Greece held a general election yesterday but the leader of New Democracy, the largest party, has said that he is unable to form a government. Antonis Samaras has suggested calling new elections as the only way out of the country's political crisis.
New Democracy (centre right) and PASOK (centre left) had dominated Greek politics, but they haemorrhaged support at the election as the public blamed them for the economic storm that has engulfed the country. Where previously one or other party would have been able to govern alone, their combined share of seats in the Greek parliament would leave them short of a parliamentary majority. Together they won less than a third of the vote and are only in striking distance of a majority because Greece gives a sixth of the parliamentary seats as a bonus to the party winning the largest share of the votes, in this case New Democracy; they also benefited from nearly 20% of Greeks voting for parties that failed to secure parliamentary representation.
In Greece if the leader of the largest parliamentary party is unable to form a government, the leader of the second biggest is then invited to have a go. That is Mr Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, an umbrella grouping of various far left groups who are opposed to the EU/IMF bailout and to further austerity measures. Anti-austerity parties won more votes than supporters of the bailout, but they have less parliamentary seats. Even if Mr Tsipras was leading a coherent group that wanted to govern rather oppose things, he would find it impossible to form a government unless he can somehow lure PASOK into a coalition that would also have to include the Greek Communists. As PASOK contested the election on a pro-bailout ticket, such efforts are unlikely to succeed.
So maybe Greece will face another election. Or maybe Evangelos Venizelos of the third-placed PASOK can form a coalition including New Democracy and the small centre left Europhile party Democratic Left. Together these three groups would have a parliamentary majority and their share of the popular vote would not be too embarrassingly behind that of the anti-bailout parties represented in parliament (38.2% v. 42.9%).
If fresh elections are held then Syriza will be hoping to pass New Democracy and gain the 50-seat bonus for being the largest party. Their leader would then be in position to form a far left anti-bailout coalition, particularly if the people who voted for parties that failed to make the country's 3% threshold can be persuaded to vote for Syriza or the Communists. Things would then get very interesting. A Syriza-Communist government would most likely repudiate the EU-IMF deal, cutting the country off from any external sources of funding. The country would then be looking at a disorderly default on its international debts, expulsion from the Eurozone, and at having to balance its government books from its own resources. Given the predilections of the Communists and Syriza, Greece might also withdraw voluntarily from the European Union. I suspect that all this would be accompanied by economic collapse as anyone with Greece with anything that is not nailed down tries to get it out of the country, but either way it could be rather exciting.
More:
Greek election: Antonis Samaras coalition bid fails (BBC)
Greek legislative election, 2012 (Wikipedia; with breakdown of votes and seats for parties elected to the Greek parliament)
New Democracy (centre right) and PASOK (centre left) had dominated Greek politics, but they haemorrhaged support at the election as the public blamed them for the economic storm that has engulfed the country. Where previously one or other party would have been able to govern alone, their combined share of seats in the Greek parliament would leave them short of a parliamentary majority. Together they won less than a third of the vote and are only in striking distance of a majority because Greece gives a sixth of the parliamentary seats as a bonus to the party winning the largest share of the votes, in this case New Democracy; they also benefited from nearly 20% of Greeks voting for parties that failed to secure parliamentary representation.
In Greece if the leader of the largest parliamentary party is unable to form a government, the leader of the second biggest is then invited to have a go. That is Mr Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, an umbrella grouping of various far left groups who are opposed to the EU/IMF bailout and to further austerity measures. Anti-austerity parties won more votes than supporters of the bailout, but they have less parliamentary seats. Even if Mr Tsipras was leading a coherent group that wanted to govern rather oppose things, he would find it impossible to form a government unless he can somehow lure PASOK into a coalition that would also have to include the Greek Communists. As PASOK contested the election on a pro-bailout ticket, such efforts are unlikely to succeed.
So maybe Greece will face another election. Or maybe Evangelos Venizelos of the third-placed PASOK can form a coalition including New Democracy and the small centre left Europhile party Democratic Left. Together these three groups would have a parliamentary majority and their share of the popular vote would not be too embarrassingly behind that of the anti-bailout parties represented in parliament (38.2% v. 42.9%).
If fresh elections are held then Syriza will be hoping to pass New Democracy and gain the 50-seat bonus for being the largest party. Their leader would then be in position to form a far left anti-bailout coalition, particularly if the people who voted for parties that failed to make the country's 3% threshold can be persuaded to vote for Syriza or the Communists. Things would then get very interesting. A Syriza-Communist government would most likely repudiate the EU-IMF deal, cutting the country off from any external sources of funding. The country would then be looking at a disorderly default on its international debts, expulsion from the Eurozone, and at having to balance its government books from its own resources. Given the predilections of the Communists and Syriza, Greece might also withdraw voluntarily from the European Union. I suspect that all this would be accompanied by economic collapse as anyone with Greece with anything that is not nailed down tries to get it out of the country, but either way it could be rather exciting.
More:
Greek election: Antonis Samaras coalition bid fails (BBC)
Greek legislative election, 2012 (Wikipedia; with breakdown of votes and seats for parties elected to the Greek parliament)
06 May, 2012
Elections Are Fun
In France, exit polls are saying that Francois Hollande has comfortably won the presidential election. Nicolas Sarkozy thus becomes only the second incumbent president of France to lose an election. Hollande will almost certainly call an election to the French parliament to secure a socialist majority there.
Before the election, Hollande had suggested that he would seek to renegotiate the European Fiscal Compact, to introduce some kind of programme for growth and make it less about the kind of budget balancing beloved of conservatives. He also proposed some quite draconian tax increases on rich people. It will be interesting to see whether he delivers on any of this or if his election has any impact on the referendum in Ireland on ratifying the Compact.
In Greece, meanwhile, today's general election has seen support for the two hitherto dominant parties collapse. PASOK and New Democracy have been blamed for the country's economic collapse and their vote has fallen to c. 14% and 20% respectively.
PASOK and New Democracy are now too weak to govern together in a grand coalition without support from the smaller parties who have seen their vote surge. The other parties are however a bit of an ideological dogs dinner, united by nothing other than their opposition to further austerity measures in Greece. It may not be possible to form a government with majority support in parliament. Or perhaps if a government is formed, it will repudiate the bail-out programme and set off on a road leading to disorderly default, leaving the Eurozone, capital flight, and a chaotic economic and political future.
EDIT (based on Nicholas Whyte's comment): The Greek electoral system gives a seat bonus to the largest party such that New Democracy and PASOK should be able to form a majority grand coalition after all. So maybe Greece is not going to disappear down the plughole just yet.
In Germany, meanwhile, state elections in Schleswig-Holstein appear to signal the end of the CDU-FDP coalition that had governed there. The FDP (a party of rightwing liberals, in some ways akin to the now vanished Progressive Democrats of Ireland) in particular have seen their support tumble.
The CDU (the Christian Democrat party of Angela Merkel) may still be able to form a government in Schleswig-Holstein, but it may be a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. This suggests that a left-right coalition could be on the cards at a national level after the next election. Angela Merkel herself apparently remains popular in Germany, her tough stance towards the more profligate countries of the European periphery reassuring voters that their bail-out monies are not going to be squandered.
Armenia too is holding parliamentary elections today, but I am not familiar with politics in that country so I must refer you to this BBC News article: Armenia votes in parliamentary elections
And just to be part of all the election fun, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu of Israel has announced plans to hold early elections in four months time. Elections are likely to lead to a coalition similar to the hawkish one Netanyahu currently heads. I do not know if Netanyahu is planning to synchronise the elections with any kind of military action against Iran.
From Hunting Monsters
Before the election, Hollande had suggested that he would seek to renegotiate the European Fiscal Compact, to introduce some kind of programme for growth and make it less about the kind of budget balancing beloved of conservatives. He also proposed some quite draconian tax increases on rich people. It will be interesting to see whether he delivers on any of this or if his election has any impact on the referendum in Ireland on ratifying the Compact.
In Greece, meanwhile, today's general election has seen support for the two hitherto dominant parties collapse. PASOK and New Democracy have been blamed for the country's economic collapse and their vote has fallen to c. 14% and 20% respectively.
PASOK and New Democracy are now too weak to govern together in a grand coalition without support from the smaller parties who have seen their vote surge. The other parties are however a bit of an ideological dogs dinner, united by nothing other than their opposition to further austerity measures in Greece. It may not be possible to form a government with majority support in parliament. Or perhaps if a government is formed, it will repudiate the bail-out programme and set off on a road leading to disorderly default, leaving the Eurozone, capital flight, and a chaotic economic and political future.
EDIT (based on Nicholas Whyte's comment): The Greek electoral system gives a seat bonus to the largest party such that New Democracy and PASOK should be able to form a majority grand coalition after all. So maybe Greece is not going to disappear down the plughole just yet.
In Germany, meanwhile, state elections in Schleswig-Holstein appear to signal the end of the CDU-FDP coalition that had governed there. The FDP (a party of rightwing liberals, in some ways akin to the now vanished Progressive Democrats of Ireland) in particular have seen their support tumble.
The CDU (the Christian Democrat party of Angela Merkel) may still be able to form a government in Schleswig-Holstein, but it may be a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. This suggests that a left-right coalition could be on the cards at a national level after the next election. Angela Merkel herself apparently remains popular in Germany, her tough stance towards the more profligate countries of the European periphery reassuring voters that their bail-out monies are not going to be squandered.
Armenia too is holding parliamentary elections today, but I am not familiar with politics in that country so I must refer you to this BBC News article: Armenia votes in parliamentary elections
And just to be part of all the election fun, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu of Israel has announced plans to hold early elections in four months time. Elections are likely to lead to a coalition similar to the hawkish one Netanyahu currently heads. I do not know if Netanyahu is planning to synchronise the elections with any kind of military action against Iran.
From Hunting Monsters
22 April, 2012
Exciting News from Turkmenistan
History has been made in the country of Turkmenistan – the nation's first car race has been held. And the winner is none other than the great leader of Turkmenistan, President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov himself. President Berdymukhamedov is used to winning electoral races (increasing his share of the vote to 97% in the elections held earlier this year) but motor racing is as new to him as it is to the rest of the Turkmen. He had not planned to take part in this motor race. However, when he arrived to watch the contest he decided that he would compete, and easily defeated the other competitors despite their intensive training for the event.
President Berdymukhamedov won while driving a Volkicar, a Turkish-made vehicle.
From Hunting Monsters
25 March, 2012
Coup in Mali
There was a time when half the world was run by military regimes, with the leaders of the other half having to permanently worry that their soldiers would decide to overthrow them and seize power themselves. But the world has changed over the last few decades and now military rule is uncommon. While the world still boasts many dictatorships, the leaders of authoritarian regimes now typically wear civilian clothes and often legitimise their rule through sham elections.
So it is that there is something oddly retro about the news from Mali, where soldiers have seized the TV station and stormed the presidential palace, announcing that President Amadou Toumani Touré has been overthrown and the constitution suspended. Some government ministers have been arrested, but the President himself has escaped the rebels' clutches and is reputedly being protected by the presidential guards.
The coup in Mali is shocking, in that the country had previously been thought of as having made a reasonably successful transition to democratic rule, despite its relative poverty. Touré himself had originally come to power in a 1991 coup against a brutal dictatorship, but he oversaw a transition to representative government, relinquishing power to elected civilians in 1992. Touré later re-entered politics, winning election to the presidency in 2002 (and re-election in 2007).
So, why the coup? It seems that President Touré's rule had become a lot less popular recently, thanks largely to an insurgency in the north of the country. Some ethnic Tuaregs there had become disaffected with the central government of Mali and had taken up arms against it. Malian armed forces had performed badly against the rebels (many of whom seem to have been veterans of the civil war in Libya) and the army's poor performance was blamed on President Touré.
Still, it seems odd that simple disaffection with the President has led to the coup. Touré was due to step down next month when elections for a new president where scheduled – if his removal was the real goal then the putschists could simply have waited till then. It may be that the coup leaders are hoping to install a security regime that will funnel resources to the army to fight the insurgents in the north, or it could that they simply seized the opportunity to take power that Touré's weakness presented.
It is unclear whether the coup will succeed in overthrowing the constitutional government of Mali. Although the putschists seem strong now, they have failed to capture the president. The rebellious soldiers appear to be undisciplined and ill-equipped, while the president's own guard are a well trained and well equipped force. Furthermore, the rebels are led by a junior officer, Captain Amadou Sanogo, and do not seem to have the backing of the entire armed forces. It may be, therefore, that the coup will fizzle out, or perhaps we will be hearing a lot more of Captain Sanogo over the next few years.
Amadou Toumani Touré image source
More:
Mali soldiers loot presidential palace after coup
In pictures: Mali coup
From Hunting Monsters
So it is that there is something oddly retro about the news from Mali, where soldiers have seized the TV station and stormed the presidential palace, announcing that President Amadou Toumani Touré has been overthrown and the constitution suspended. Some government ministers have been arrested, but the President himself has escaped the rebels' clutches and is reputedly being protected by the presidential guards.
The coup in Mali is shocking, in that the country had previously been thought of as having made a reasonably successful transition to democratic rule, despite its relative poverty. Touré himself had originally come to power in a 1991 coup against a brutal dictatorship, but he oversaw a transition to representative government, relinquishing power to elected civilians in 1992. Touré later re-entered politics, winning election to the presidency in 2002 (and re-election in 2007).
So, why the coup? It seems that President Touré's rule had become a lot less popular recently, thanks largely to an insurgency in the north of the country. Some ethnic Tuaregs there had become disaffected with the central government of Mali and had taken up arms against it. Malian armed forces had performed badly against the rebels (many of whom seem to have been veterans of the civil war in Libya) and the army's poor performance was blamed on President Touré.
Still, it seems odd that simple disaffection with the President has led to the coup. Touré was due to step down next month when elections for a new president where scheduled – if his removal was the real goal then the putschists could simply have waited till then. It may be that the coup leaders are hoping to install a security regime that will funnel resources to the army to fight the insurgents in the north, or it could that they simply seized the opportunity to take power that Touré's weakness presented.
It is unclear whether the coup will succeed in overthrowing the constitutional government of Mali. Although the putschists seem strong now, they have failed to capture the president. The rebellious soldiers appear to be undisciplined and ill-equipped, while the president's own guard are a well trained and well equipped force. Furthermore, the rebels are led by a junior officer, Captain Amadou Sanogo, and do not seem to have the backing of the entire armed forces. It may be, therefore, that the coup will fizzle out, or perhaps we will be hearing a lot more of Captain Sanogo over the next few years.
Amadou Toumani Touré image source
More:
Mali soldiers loot presidential palace after coup
In pictures: Mali coup
From Hunting Monsters
24 March, 2012
Ironic Juxtaposition
A new law in Israel has banned the use of underweight models in fashion photography and on catwalks. Supporters of the law hope that it will help to combat eating disorders in girls and women.
Meanwhile, in an Israeli prison, Hana Shalabi is reported to be close to death. Ms Shalabi has been held in "administrative detention" since February but has not been charged or convicted of any crime (and is neither an Israeli citizen nor resident). She is on hunger strike in protest against her imprisonment.
From Hunting Monsters
Meanwhile, in an Israeli prison, Hana Shalabi is reported to be close to death. Ms Shalabi has been held in "administrative detention" since February but has not been charged or convicted of any crime (and is neither an Israeli citizen nor resident). She is on hunger strike in protest against her imprisonment.
From Hunting Monsters
20 March, 2012
Palestinian Solar Panels Face Destruction
The occupied West Bank is divided into three Areas. Area C comprises those parts of the territory that are under full Israeli control. Some of the villages in this territory are not connected to the electricity grid, but the Spanish and German NGOs have brought electricity to them with solar panels paid for by European governments. Unfortunately, these solar panels are now about to be demolished by the Israeli authorities, as they were built without the necessary planning permission.
It seems to be very difficult for Palestinians in Area C to get planning permission for anything, let alone solar panels. The Israeli campaigning group, Peace Now, reports on the basis of civil administration figures that from 2001 to 2007, just 91 permits for Palestinian construction projects were issued in Area C, while 663 Palestinian structures were demolished. In the same period, some 10,000 Israeli settlement units were built in that territory, even though Israeli settlement activity in Area C is illegal under international law.
Figures in the localities that will lose electricity when the solar panels are destroyed report that this will trigger an exodus from those areas, as people have become used to the modern comforts that energy provide. This will of course leave the areas more open for further Israeli settlement, which might just be the reason for the solar panels' destruction.
More
From Hunting Monsters
It seems to be very difficult for Palestinians in Area C to get planning permission for anything, let alone solar panels. The Israeli campaigning group, Peace Now, reports on the basis of civil administration figures that from 2001 to 2007, just 91 permits for Palestinian construction projects were issued in Area C, while 663 Palestinian structures were demolished. In the same period, some 10,000 Israeli settlement units were built in that territory, even though Israeli settlement activity in Area C is illegal under international law.
Figures in the localities that will lose electricity when the solar panels are destroyed report that this will trigger an exodus from those areas, as people have become used to the modern comforts that energy provide. This will of course leave the areas more open for further Israeli settlement, which might just be the reason for the solar panels' destruction.
More
From Hunting Monsters
19 February, 2012
Little Protest Banned in Russia
The Russian town of Barnaul was recently rocked by an unusually small protest. The protesters were not human beings but a sinister coalition of toys – Lego figurines, small animals, Kinder surprises, and other malcontents – who were expressing their hostility towards the authorities with outrageous slogans like "I'm for clean elections" and "A thief should sit in jail, not in the Kremlin".
The toys have applied to stage another protest in Barnaul, but this has been refused on the basis that they are not Russian citizens. "As you understand, toys, especially imported toys, are not only not citizens of Russia but they are not even people", a local official has been quoted as saying.
There are however plans for the toys to protest individually. It appears that under Russian law this would not need a permit.
More
From Hunting Monsters
The toys have applied to stage another protest in Barnaul, but this has been refused on the basis that they are not Russian citizens. "As you understand, toys, especially imported toys, are not only not citizens of Russia but they are not even people", a local official has been quoted as saying.
There are however plans for the toys to protest individually. It appears that under Russian law this would not need a permit.
More
From Hunting Monsters
18 February, 2012
Turkmen Hail Re-election of President
The President of Turkmenistan, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, has been re-elected for another term. He secured 97% of the vote. Mr Berdymukhamedov was clearly the best man for the job, to such an extent that opposition candidates all praised him during the campaign.
Peace loving Turkmen are hailing the great victory of President Berdymukhamedov. Only hooligans and criminal elements pay any attention to anti-Turkmenistan lies propagated by the Bilderberg Group controlled Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
A bright future awaits the people of Turkmenistan under their great leader.
More
even more
From Hunting Monsters
Peace loving Turkmen are hailing the great victory of President Berdymukhamedov. Only hooligans and criminal elements pay any attention to anti-Turkmenistan lies propagated by the Bilderberg Group controlled Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
A bright future awaits the people of Turkmenistan under their great leader.
More
even more
From Hunting Monsters
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